Find sales agents with high early defaults
Run an early-default check to inform credit decisions in a minute. Add loans with the agent, store and first missed installment to compare each agent with the book and with other agents in the same store.
Loans file
4,288 loans from 120 units were judged, 883 loans too young to judge and 0 unreadable rows were left out.
Your file is read in this browser and never uploaded, and only counts are sent if you request the result by email.
A loan counts when its first missed installment falls within this number. If installments due is selected, loans that have not reached it are left out.
When many agents are tested, some rates look high by chance. Higher confidence asks more of each test, so fewer units are flagged.
These are generated demo loans from 120 agents in 24 stores and 3 regions, with a weak region, a weak store and two agents planted.
Units flagged
4 units have early defaults in the first 4 installments at 2.0× the book's or their store's rate or more, beyond chance at 95% confidence. They account for 25.1% of early defaults from 5.5% of loans, and each flag is a reason to look, not proof.
Early default rates
Red bars mark flagged agents. The dashed line marks the book's rate, and the dark tick marks the agent's own store rate.
Units by early defaults
| Rank | Unit | Store | Loans | Early defaults | Default rate | Book lift | Store index | Excess | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A057 | S12 | 73 | 23 | 31.51% | 5.7× | 6.4× | 19 | Both |
| 2 | A091 | S19 | 73 | 18 | 24.66% | 4.5× | 7.2× | 14 | Both |
| 3 | A054 | S11 | 42 | 10 | 23.81% | 4.3× | 2.0× | 8 | Book |
| 4 | A055 | S11 | 47 | 8 | 17.02% | 3.1× | 1.3× | 5 | Book |
| 5 | A051 | S11 | 52 | 7 | 13.46% | 2.5× | 0.9× | 4 | Within chance |
| 6 | A052 | S11 | 46 | 5 | 10.87% | 2.0× | 0.7× | 2 | Within chance |
| 7 | A037 | S08 | 36 | 4 | 11.11% | 2.0× | 3.7× | 2 | Within chance |
| 8 | A118 | S24 | 41 | 4 | 9.76% | 1.8× | 2.1× | 2 | Within chance |
| 9 | A076 | S16 | 43 | 4 | 9.30% | 1.7× | 1.7× | 2 | Within chance |
| 10 | A077 | S16 | 43 | 4 | 9.30% | 1.7× | 1.7× | 2 | Within chance |
| 11 | A028 | S06 | 27 | 3 | 11.11% | 2.0× | – | 2 | Within chance |
| 12 | A012 | S03 | 29 | 3 | 10.34% | 1.9× | – | 1 | Within chance |
| 13 | A081 | S17 | 29 | 3 | 10.34% | 1.9× | – | 1 | Within chance |
| 14 | A007 | S02 | 48 | 4 | 8.33% | 1.5× | 4.4× | 1 | Within chance |
| 15 | A119 | S24 | 34 | 3 | 8.82% | 1.6× | 1.8× | 1 | Within chance |
| 16 | A056 | S12 | 38 | 3 | 7.89% | 1.4× | 0.5× | 1 | Within chance |
| 17 | A103 | S21 | 20 | 2 | 10.00% | 1.8× | – | 1 | Within chance |
| 18 | A063 | S13 | 39 | 3 | 7.69% | 1.4× | 2.1× | 1 | Within chance |
| 19 | A058 | S12 | 21 | 2 | 9.52% | 1.7× | – | 1 | Within chance |
| 20 | A043 | S09 | 22 | 2 | 9.09% | 1.7× | – | 1 | Within chance |
| 21 | A073 | S15 | 43 | 3 | 6.98% | 1.3× | 2.0× | 1 | Within chance |
| 22 | A094 | S19 | 43 | 3 | 6.98% | 1.3× | 0.6× | 1 | Within chance |
| 23 | A013 | S03 | 25 | 2 | 8.00% | 1.5× | – | 1 | Within chance |
| 24 | A061 | S13 | 45 | 3 | 6.67% | 1.2× | 1.7× | 1 | Within chance |
| 25 | A109 | S22 | 27 | 2 | 7.41% | 1.4× | – | 1 | Within chance |
95 more are in the download.
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Counting and tests
Early default = 1 ≤ First missed installment ≤ Early default count Default rate = Early defaults ÷ Loans Book lift = Default rate ÷ Book early default rate Store index = Default rate ÷ Other agents' rate Excess = Early defaults − Loans × Book early default rate Flag = p ≤ (1 − Confidence) ÷ Tests & Book lift | Store index ≥ Warning multiple
Each unit is tested against the rest of the book, and each agent is also tested against the other agents in its store, with confidence shared across all tests. An agent high against the book but near its store's rate points to the store or region, and one high against its own store points to the agent.
First payment default by sales agent
An early default is a loan's first missed installment within the count you choose. The tool compares loans by agent, store or region using the first missed installment column.
Early defaults concentrated around an agent can point to applications that need a closer look. Compare the agent with the book and with other agents in the same store to see whether the pattern is broader.
Common questions
How do I find sales agents with high early defaults?
Compare each agent's early default rate with the rest of the book. When a store column is available, the tool also compares an agent with the other agents in that store.
What counts as an early default on a loan?
An early default is a loan whose first missed installment falls within the count you choose. The default count is four installments and can be set from one to twelve.
How can I tell a bad agent from a weak area?
Compare the agent with the book and, when store data is available, with the other agents in that store. If the store or region also stands out, the pattern may be broader than one agent.
Can I compare early defaults by store and region?
Yes, select store or region as the level to compare. The tool compares each selected unit with the rest of the book.
How many installments count as an early default?
The default count is four installments, and you can set it from one to twelve. If you provide installments due, loans that have not reached the selected count are left out.