Early payment default rate by channel
Enter each channel’s loans booked and early payment defaults. See the book’s rate, which channels run hot and what closing them would stop.
Book’s early payment default rate
Source B and Affiliate run at up to 3.3 times the book’s early payment default rate. Closing them would stop 39.7% of the early defaults and 46.1% of their loss, for 14.8% of the loans booked.
Early payment default rate by channel
Each bar shows a channel’s early payment default rate, red where it reaches the warning level, and the dashed lines show the book’s rate and the warning level.
Channel results
| Channel | Loans booked | Early defaults | Rate | Book multiple | Amount owed | Loss | Share of loans | Share of early defaults |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Branch | 4,200 | 21 | 0.50% | 0.4× | €189,000 | €151,200 | 14.5% | 5.8% |
| Website | 9,800 | 98 | 1.00% | 0.8× | €735,000 | €588,000 | 33.8% | 26.8% |
| Mobile app | 7,600 | 61 | 0.80% | 0.6× | €427,000 | €341,600 | 26.2% | 16.7% |
| Source A | 3,100 | 40 | 1.29% | 1.0× | €360,000 | €288,000 | 10.7% | 11.0% |
| Source B | 1,900 | 78 | 4.11% | 3.3× | €858,000 | €686,400 | 6.6% | 21.4% |
| Affiliate | 2,400 | 67 | 2.79% | 2.2× | €603,000 | €482,400 | 8.3% | 18.4% |
| Book | 29,000 | 365 | 1.26% | 1.0× | €3,172,000 | €2,537,600 | 100.0% | 100.0% |
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The next step is to test stricter checks in the credit decision where early defaults run high, using past applications first. Start free
See the formulas
Rate = Early defaults ÷ Loans booked Book multiple = Rate ÷ Book’s early payment default rate Loss = Amount owed × Loss share Early defaults stopped = Early defaults (Multiple of book’s rate ≤ Book multiple) ÷ Early defaults
The calculation uses counts only, with no vintage curves or cures. The warning multiple and loss share are yours, and the calculator does not say how many early defaults are fraud.
Early payment default rate by channel
The early payment default rate is the number of early payment defaults divided by loans booked. Enter those counts for each channel to see its rate and the rate for the book.
Comparing channel rates with the book’s rate shows which channels reach your warning multiple. The results show the early defaults and their loss that closing flagged channels would stop, alongside the share of loans booked you would give up.
Common questions
How do you calculate the early payment default rate?
Divide early payment defaults by loans booked. The calculator works this out for each channel and for the whole book.
Is early payment default the same as first payment default?
This calculator uses early payment default for loans that miss their first payments. It does not set out a separate definition for first payment default.
Why can early payment defaults point to fraud?
A loan that misses its first payment may never have been meant to be repaid. The calculator shows early payment defaults by channel but does not determine how many are fraud.
How do I find the channels with the most early payment defaults?
Compare each channel’s early payment default rate with the book’s rate and your warning multiple. The calculator flags channels whose rate reaches that multiple.
What would closing a flagged channel stop?
The calculator shows the share of early defaults and their loss that closing flagged channels would stop. It also shows the share of loans booked those channels represent.